Episode 9 – Are estimates needed?
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Can we avoid estimation entirely? It’s a topic which gets lively debate. To many people with a classical project management viewpoint, this seems like madness. To some agile developers, spending considerable time estimating and re-estimating, it may seem like heaven.
This podcast is AI-generated based on material from the “Agile Plays” website and book.
Transcript
Okay. So imagine, building a house Okay. But there's no blueprint. Mhmm. And the materials just show up randomly.
Oh, wow. That sounds pretty chaotic. Right? That's how some people feel when they first hear about no estimates in project planning. Yeah.
It seems counterintuitive, especially if you're used to gannt charts and deadlines and all that. Absolutely. It really challenges how we think about planning and managing work Yeah. Especially, I think, in software Yeah. Where we've relied on time estimates for so long.
You shared some excerpts from an agile playbook for scale up organizations. Right. And it really jumps into this world of no estimates. Uh-huh. And what I thought was interesting is it really questions Yeah.
How we think about planning Yeah. Especially in complex environments like software development. One of the key things that they talk about in the book is that those traditional methods Yeah. Really fall short because of that complexity. You know?
It's like trying to predict Yeah. Where lightning is gonna strike. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.
It's just too unpredictable. So with no estimates, how do we deal with that unpredictability? So it's not about abandoning planning. It's about shifting the focus from trying to predict the future Okay. To setting yourself up to succeed in the present.
Okay. Think of it this way. Okay. If you're spending all this time obsessing over when a task is gonna be done Uh-huh. You kind of lose the big picture Right.
Which is like delivering value. So instead of granular estimates, what should we be focusing on? Well, prioritization is huge. Uh-huh. A clearly ordered backlog is like a compass.
Okay. It guides the team to what's most important right now. It ensures that everyone's kinda rowing in the same direction Right. Even if the exact route might change. Now what about release planning?
Yeah. Long term estimations are usually considered essential. Right. So how do we balance the need for predictability Uh-huh. With this unpredictability of software development?
Yeah. It is a balancing act, and I think we have to acknowledge that detailed estimations for work way out in the future Yeah. Is really unreliable in a complex environment. It's like trying to predict the weather months in advance. Uh-huh.
You might know the season Yeah. But you don't know the specifics. So how do we approach release planning Yeah. In a no estimates world? So it's about finding the right level of detail for how far out you're looking.
Okay. You know? So the further out you're looking Yeah. The less granular you need to be. Okay.
It's like planning a road trip. Uh-huh. If you're thinking about the next hour Yeah. You need a detailed map. Hello?
You need to know the turns. Yeah. But if you're thinking about the entire journey Uh-huh. You just need a general sense of where you're going. Okay.
So we're not abandoning release planning. Right. We're just adjusting the level of detail. Based on how far we're looking out. Exactly.
How do we prevent going too far Okay. With all this flexibility and lack of rigid time lines? Mhmm. Well, one of the keys in no estimates is what you mentioned before, rightsizing, which is breaking down those bigger things Right. Into smaller, more manageable elements.
Right. That can be done in a shorter time frame. So instead of this massive multi month project Right. We break it down into smaller chunks. Exactly.
That are easier to grasp. And the level of detail for those chunks Okay. Really depends on how far out you're looking. Okay. So something that's happening in a week or 2 Yeah.
Could be broken down into specific tasks. Okay. But something that's happening months from now Yeah. You just need a high level overview. So this lets us balance Yeah.
The time we spend planning Yeah. With the time we spend actually creating. Right. You're not getting bogged down Yeah. In all that detail.
That's gonna change anyway. Exactly. It's about getting to that value for the customer. Now if we're not using time estimates Yeah. How do we even start planning those smaller chunks of work?
How do we know we're making progress towards our larger goals? That's a really good question. Yeah. And it's something we're gonna talk about as we continue this deep dive. Okay.
But what's fascinating is that no estimates Yeah. Isn't about getting rid of structure or accountability. Yeah. It's about finding more effective ways to plan and deliver value. So it's not chaos.
Right. It's a good kind of order. Exactly. One that's more adaptable Right. And responsive to how software development really is.
Yeah. So this has given us a lot to think about in terms of how no estimates Right. Challenges our normal way of planning Yeah. The unpredictability of software development Yeah. The importance of rightsizing, breaking work down Uh-huh.
Into those chunks that we can manage Yeah. And the need to adjust the detail based on how far out we're looking. And the balance Yeah. Between planning and doing Yeah. So you're not spending too much time planning Right.
And you're actually getting things done. But there's still a lot to unpack. Yeah. When we come back, we'll talk more about how teams can effectively plan Okay. Without relying on those familiar time estimates.
I'm looking forward to it. Stay tuned. Welcome back to our deep dive on no estimates. Yeah? Before the break, we were talking about how no estimates requires us to rethink planning and delivering value Mhmm.
Especially breaking down big goals Yeah. Yeah. Into those manageable chunks. You mentioned rightsizing Yeah. Which seems crucial to make this whole thing work.
Right. It's about finding that sweet spot Yeah. Where a task is small enough to be done efficiently Right. But not so small that it loses connection to the big picture. Yeah.
It's like the difference between trying to eat an entire cake at once Oh. And enjoying it one slice at a time. Okay. One will give you a stomachache. Okay.
I get it. The other one will be much more enjoyable. So how do we know if we've bright sized a task? So one good indicator Yeah. Is if the team just can't even estimate it.
Like, they're really struggling Okay. To figure out how long it's gonna take Yeah. If there's lots of uncertainty or debate Yeah. Yeah. That usually means it's too big.
Okay. Break it down. So if we're feeling that deer in the headlights look Uh-huh. That means we need to zoom in a little bit. Exactly.
It's more granular. Another sign is if a task is just dragging on Okay. Like, for days or even weeks. Yeah. And no progress is being made.
Right. If the team feels stuck Yeah. It might be time to rethink it Okay. And see if it can be broken down. This highlights the importance of those regular check ins Yeah.
And feedback loops we talked about before Right. Making sure that we're constantly evaluating Yeah. And adjusting our approach. Yeah. And visual tools like Kanban boards Okay.
Can be really helpful for this. Yeah. They give you that real time snapshot of what's going on Yeah. So the team can see any bottlenecks Okay. Or tasks that are getting stuck.
Like air traffic control for your project. That's a good way to put it. You can see where things are flowing Mhmm. And where there's congestion. And just like air traffic control can reroute planes Yeah.
The team can use this visual representation Sure. To adjust what they're doing Right. Reassign tasks or break things down Okay. Just to keep things moving. How do we make sure Okay.
That all these smaller right size tasks Yeah. Are still aligned with the project's bigger goals? That's where that prioritized backlog comes in. It's like that compass. Right.
Even as we break things down Yeah. We're still making sure that those pieces are contributing to the most important goals. So we have that zoomed out map of the whole forest Exactly. Even as we're navigating each individual tree. Each task should have a connection Okay.
Back to that overall map Right. Back to the strategic vision. So we're not just busy working. Yeah. We're working on the right things.
Exactly. Working on the things that matter. Things that are driving value. It's a customer. Yes.
Now let's talk about managers in this no estimates world. Okay. It's gonna be a big shift for them. Right. Especially if they're used to command and control.
Yeah. You talked about management as a service. Mhmm. What does that mean? So it's about shifting the focus Okay.
From directing Yeah. And controlling Oh, yeah. Okay. From directing Yeah. And controlling Oh, yeah.
To enabling and empowering. So instead of telling people what to do Right. It's more about helping them do their best. Exactly. Think about a gardener.
Okay. They don't force the plant to grow. Right. They just give it what it needs. Sunlight and water and all that.
Exactly. What are some services that managers can provide? One of the most important Yeah. Is clarity of purpose. Okay.
The team needs to understand the goals Uh-huh. The priorities Right. The overall direction. So communicating that vision clearly Yeah. And translating it into that well defined backlog.
And checking in with the team to make sure everyone's on the same page. So they know how their work Right. Contributes to the big picture. Yeah. Another service is giving the team the resources Uh-huh.
That they need. Absolutely. Right. This could be tools Okay. Training Mhmm.
Information. Yeah. Even removing obstacles. And removing obstacles could mean Yeah. Protecting them from distraction Exactly.
And interruptions. Creating a space Yeah. Where they can focus. Yeah. And this goes back to that Yeah.
Psychological safety that we were talking about before. Right. A space where they can experiment Yeah. Take risks Right. And learn from mistakes.
And the psychological safety is crucial It is. For that continuous improvement culture. Yeah. A space where they can speak up. Yeah.
Share their ideas Right. And challenge how things are done. And those regular retrospectives Yes. Create that structured form Exactly. For reflection and improvement.
And celebration too. Yeah. Celebrating the wins is important. Absolutely. But it's not just feedback within the team.
Right. It's also getting feedback from stakeholders, from customers, from anyone who interacts Yeah. With the software. So we're not building in a vacuum. Right.
We're building something that meets people's needs. And there are all sorts of ways to get that feedback Uh-huh. User surveys Yeah. Beta testing Right. Direct communication.
The key is to have clear channels Yeah. For that feedback to get to the team Right. So it can go into the backlog Okay. And inform the next steps. This constant feedback loop Yes.
Is how the team adapts and evolves. Exactly. So we're not just building something high quality Uh-huh. But something that's meeting those evolving needs. Okay.
Let's talk about another aspect Okay. Of a well functioning, no estimates environment Yeah. Flow. Okay. We've talked about flow a bit Yeah.
In terms of rightsizing tasks. Right. And those Kanban boards Mhmm. What does flow really mean? So flow is about smooth Okay.
Uninterrupted movement of work through the system from the initial idea Right. To delivering value to the customer. Right. It's about minimizing those bottlenecks. Right.
Delays, distractions, all the things that slow us down. Right. So a well oiled machine Exactly. Where every part is working together. And just like with a machine Yeah.
Even small disruptions can cause big problems. Okay. Think about a conveyor belt. Yeah. If one part gets stuck Uh-huh.
It stops the whole thing. Yeah. That makes sense. So how do we find and address those bottlenecks Yeah. In software development?
Yeah. How do we do that? Kanban boards are great for this k. Because we can actually see Yeah. Where tasks are piling up Yeah.
Where there are dependencies. Mhmm. Maybe someone's overloaded. So it's like we have X-ray vision Uh-huh. Into the project.
We can see what's going on. And once we found those bottlenecks Yeah. We can start to fix them. Right. So we might reprioritize tasks.
Oh, yeah. Redistribute work. Yeah. Break things down. Provide support to the people who are struggling.
So we're constantly monitoring and adjusting Completely, being proactive. To keep things moving. This focus on flow Yeah. Has all sorts of benefits, not just for productivity Right. But for well-being as well.
You know that feeling of flow Yeah. Of being in the zone Uh-huh. It's incredibly motivating It is. When you can see the progress. Yeah.
When teams experience flow Yeah. They're more engaged Uh-huh. More productive and more successful. What about those distractions and interruptions Right. That pull people out of that flow state?
We need to create a space Yeah. Where they can focus Without being bombarded by emails and notifications. So we need to set boundaries Yeah. And expectations Right. Maybe have dedicated blocks of time Right.
For focused work Yeah. Where interruptions are discouraged Yeah. Maybe have guidelines for communication It's right. So everyone's respectful of each other's time. So we're creating a culture Right.
Where flow is valued and protected. Yes. And people can say no Yeah. To those distractions. This is so important in a no estimates environment It is.
Where being adaptable and responsive Right. Is so crucial. This has given us a lot to think about Yeah. In terms of how flow works Yeah. In no estimates world.
Right. We talked about visualizing the workflow Uh-huh. Finding and fixing those bottlenecks Yeah. And getting rid of distractions. To create that space where people can thrive.
And we talked about the benefits Uh-huh. Not just for productivity Right. But for well-being. Right. Feeling good about the work.
That feeling of accomplishment. Exactly. But there's still more to explore. There is. When we come back Okay.
We'll talk about the specific tools and techniques Okay. That can help us implement this no estimates approach. Sounds good. Stay tuned. Welcome back to the deep dive.
We've been talking about no estimates Yeah. And how it changes software development Yeah. Especially creating a more adaptable work environment. It's been a journey Yeah. Unpacking all those assumptions about planning Yeah.
And, you know, those habits we have Yeah. Of using time estimates. We talked about the why Mhmm. The complexity that makes traditional estimates unreliable Right. And the what the principles of prioritization Yeah.
Rightsizing and being more flexible. So now let's talk about the how. Yeah. The tools and techniques The practical stuff. That can help teams implement all this.
Because for a lot of people Yeah. Ditching estimates can feel scary. Yeah. Like jumping off a cliff. We need some handholds.
Yeah. Yeah. To make it less daunting. So let's talk about tools and techniques. Yep.
1 we've mentioned is the Kanban board Yeah. For those who don't know. Uh-huh. What's a Kanban board? So imagine a whiteboard with columns.
Okay. Each column is a stage of a task. Okay. Like, to do in progress. Right.
Done. And each task is a card. Yes. A card that moves across the board. As it goes through the stages.
So you can see what's happening. So it's like a visual representation of the workflow. Exactly. Everyone can see what's going on Uh-huh. Where things are stuck.
And what needs to be done next. But it's more than just a pretty picture. Right. It's a system. Go ahead.
One of the key things Yeah. Is limiting work in progress. Okay. We call it WIP. WIP.
You set limits Okay. On how many tasks can be in each stage. At the same time. This forces the team Yeah. To finish tasks Okay.
Before starting new ones. So it prevents those bottlenecks. Exactly. It's like a synchronized dance. Okay.
Everyone's moving together. Instead of everyone doing their own thing. Right. And by limiting WIP Yeah. We also start to see Uh-huh.
Those hidden problems. Like shining a light Yep. In the dark corners. You see what needs to be cleaned up. So Kanban boards give us that visual representation Yeah.
That system for managing work. Uh-huh. And they help us find those bottlenecks. What other tools or techniques are there? Well, there's time boxing.
Yeah. We talked about it a bit. Setting a fixed amount of time Right. For a specific activity. It could be working on a task.
Okay. Having a meeting. Yeah. Gathering feedback It creates a rhythm Yeah. And focus Mhmm.
Make sure we're making progress. Right. And not getting lost. Not getting bogged down. Time boxing can be used in lots of ways Okay.
Like those backlog refinement sessions where you clarify requirements. Uh-huh. Time boxing keeps them focused and productive. Keeps those meetings from dragging on forever. Exactly.
A time is a tool. But how do we measure success? That's a good If we're not tracking time Yeah. How do we know we're making progress? It requires a shift.
Okay. Instead of looking at hours worked or velocity Uh-huh. We need to look at what's being delivered To the customer. Exactly. How quickly are we delivering features?
Yeah. How satisfied are customers? Yeah. How often are we releasing updates? It's about the impact Right.
Not just the output. From effort to outcome. We need to get creative with our metrics. Yeah. This has been a great deep dive It is.
And do no estimates. We explored the reasons Yeah. The principles and the tools. It's a new way of thinking Yeah. About software development.
Acknowledging complexity embracing flexibility Right. And focusing on the customer. It's about letting go Yeah. Of that need for certainty That traditional estimates give us. And finding a better way.
A more collaborative way Uh-huh. To work. So for those listening Yeah. Who are interested Mhmm. Remember, it's not about no planning.
Right. It's about better planning. Start talking to your teams. Yeah. Explore the principles.
Try some small changes. Like limiting work in progress Yeah. Or time boxing. A more adaptable way of working starts with one step. You might be surprised Yeah.
What you discover. That's it for our deep dive. Into no estimates. We hope you found it insightful Yeah. Maybe even inspiring.
Until next time. Keep exploring. Keep experimenting. And keep developing.
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